3G - Success yet?

3G - the power of the Ethernet....
Available for Consulting
Alan Moore

If we measure how high is the 3G penetration rate per capita, not the 3G migration per total subscrber base - then we get a very different view... Italy has already 48% 3G phones per capita. So there is a 3G phone for almost half of all Italians. Now 3G is clearly a success. Note this is higher as a penetration rate for Italy, than personal computer penetration, or fixed internet penetration (per capita, not per household).
So, I wanted to give our readers a look at how 3G is doing. Here are the world's leading countries, not by how many of their subscribers have upgraded to 3G, but rather, by national penetration rate of 3G per capita, ie per all human beings:

South Korea 67%
Japan 67%
Singapore 61%
Australia 53%
Italy 48%
Austria 47%
Sweden 43%
Taiwan 43%
Finland 42%
Portugal 41%
Israel 39%
Norway 38%
Spain 38%

Thats the baker's dozen leading countries. All around the world. 13 countries where there is a 3G phone subscription for over a third of the population and very smoothly up the curve up to two thirds of the population. Is there any doubt that 3G is happening? That 3G is a success? That 3G will happen everywhere? (for those looking for the USA, it is at 20% - remember this is per capita, and USA lags the Industrialized World still so much, that they have not even reached the 100% national mobile phone penetration rates yet. Germany is ahead at 23%, the UK is at 32%).

The above stats from several sources including the Netsize Guide 2009, the ITU 2008 and Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009. But yes, its been a long time coming, but the world's biggest infrastrructure investment, - and the world's biggest economic gamble - have panned out. 3G is well on its way to being a major success. But of who will end up winners and losers?

It is no longer a technology game. Like I've said for years already, the winners in 3G will be determined by services and marketing. Some of the past giants have been very slow to grasp that... And for anyone who would like to read a 2 page summary of the major stats on this industry, remember I have my free Thought Piece on Mobile in 2009. I'll be happy to send it to you, if you send me an email to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com.

Recent GPS Info from IMS

Market research in poorly defined emerging markets is frustrating as well as expensive. GPS is of interest to me and IMS Research, a supplier of market research and consultancy services on a wide range of global electronics markets, follows GPS and the market place forces that influence the general marketplace. IMS and others create any number of great reports that can be bought that can help explain trends and situations within sectors of industry. The many-paged reports can also cost many thousands of dollars but if they confirm and refine hard to establish market organization, trends, and likely competitive factors, they are well worth their fees. If you can not afford the full report, the same companies tend to release via press releases enough detail to understand the macros. (Whew - that disclosure behind)...

I went looking through their press releases to see what sort of insight they were sharing. I found several interesting teasers that make even more sense when arranged together? I have tried to weave their content from several "report teasers" to flesh-in how the general GPS market place is moving. GPS that once was the domain of many tens of thousand of dollars for a system that in current mass-application chip terms is now more accurate and may fetch on a several dollar fee. As GPS has passed from its military use to land survey and now to the millions if not soon billions massive new opportunities are emerging. Essentially not only is Nokia likely the world's number one camera integrator and quickly becoming the world's number one GPS integrator. And that simple reality has more or less diminished Kodak, killed Polaroid, and shifted the fortunes of established GPS chip designers to new comers.

What comes next is content from the several report links from IMS press releases merged to form I believe an interesting story?

With media attention currently focused on GPS-enabled cellular handsets and PNDs, the potential of emerging vertical markets for GPS and location services are going unnoticed by many.
A bumper Christmas market is set to make GPS the hottest new feature in the cellular market. Taking the huge CDMA GPS market aside, GPS-enabled handsets are set to greatly outnumber PND shipments in 2008.
GPS chips and other location technologies are being included in markets such as laptops, digital cameras and game consoles. Tom Arran, Market Analyst at IMS Research covering these GPS markets, said “GPS is a hot technology at the moment and collectively these markets represent huge potential. The non-cellular GPS market is set to increase over 6 fold. However, GPS is not infallible and its proliferation is bringing indoor performance to the fore”.
How all this potential is to be effected by macro economic factors is yet unknown although there are some trends that likely are part of the forcast .
In the new report, “WW Market for GPS/GNSS in Portable Devices”, the GPS market is forecast to increase by over $200 million between 2008 and 2009. IMS Research Analyst, Tom Arran, states “2008 was the breakout year for GPS in mobile phones. In 2009 GPS will begin to penetrate into a range of vertical markets, such as cameras, laptops, UMPCs, sporting equipment and first responder radios. This will help to drive shipment growth of over 25% YoY”.
Despite a significant increase in revenue in 2009, IMS Research believes that the best is yet to come. Arran goes on to say “2009 will not be booming year for GPS in portable devices. Looking beyond the current economic turbulence, IMS Research is forecasting the overall market for GPS to demonstrate a 21.2% CAGR between 2008 and 2013.
“There is still a lot of untapped potential and the GPS market needs to mature before breaking the 500 million units per year barrier. One of the more general issues is poor performance in challenging environments. GPS manufacturers need to start seriously considering hybrid location in their offering.
OEMs in these markets can use GPS to differentiate their product, while also drive new service revenue streams. Furthermore, location is emerging as a key component of future offerings from companies such as Google, Microsoft, Apple, Nokia, Intel, Mozilla and Ericsson. This will enable a host of new services across all key vertical markets, which in turn will further drive the uptake of GPS”.
While cellular shipments are set to outweigh PND forecasts for 2008, IMS Research believes that talk of a saturating PND market are premature. “Despite the huge success of PNDs, there is still a comparatively small installed base of users, leaving plenty of market upside. Both of these markets will continue to grow concurrently in the medium term, but importantly, they are not independent. Already, companies such as NiM, Telmap and TeleNav are seeing increasing subscription numbers for their cellular sat-nav services. Clearly this is at the expense of the PND market.
Each vertical market has its own requirements, technical and cost limitations, services and opportunities. There are now a myriad of ways to implement accurate location technologies, via GPS or otherwise. IMS Research believes that companies will require a variety of different GPS, connectivity and indoor location technology combinations to address these markets effectively.
In the camera market, IMS Research has felt for some time that geotagging is set to be the next big trend. Already, online communities like Panoramio are hosting over 2 million photos which have been ‘geotagged’. Embedding location technologies on cameras brings a more user friendly version to the masses, driving uptake. Arran added, “I think we will see this eventually being adopted across the whole camera market, from holiday makers to professionals. New compact cameras such as the Nikon P6000 have GPS inbuilt whilst SLR cameras have had external GPS devices since 2006. However, cameras have limited space, size and cost margins, while TTFFs must be almost instantaneous for geotagging. Looking beyond existing GPS designs, innovative approaches from Geotate (software GPS) and Air Semi (dynamic, continuous GPS) are purpose built“.

>> This is an interesting graph from IMS. It traces three estimates of smartphones and feature rich handsets. The intersection of two or three elements of successful geotagging, mapping, location, and imagery seems increasingly liley. My guesstimate would be that all touchphones will come featured to make geotagged imagery and that the large portion of the non-touch smartphones will all so make geotagged imagery. In the graph each line is 200 million "new" units per year. That signals in 2010 there will be some 300 million new units of smartphones and possibly as many as 100 million touchscreen smart phones.>>

Touchscreen-equipped mobile handsets sales have been building steadily for over a year now, and a new report from IMS Research forecasts that growth will become even stronger. Although there were fewer than 30 million touchscreen phones sold in 2007, IMS Research expect that number to increase to over 230 million by 2012.
There are numerous signs that touchscreens are poised to significantly increase their presence in the mobile handset market. Recent reports and announcements from the three largest mobile phone manufacturers have highlighted a trend in the increased production of phones using touch technology. In July, LG revealed that it had sold 7 million touchscreen handsets. This announcement came just five quarters after LG launched its very first touchscreen mobile phone. Showing similar success, Samsung recently released the Instinct, a full touchscreen handset, through Sprint. Just one week after the launch, Sprint announced that the Instinct had already become the best selling EV-DO device in the carrier’s history. Not to be outdone, Apple reported selling 1 million of the new 3G iPhone handsets in just the first three days of its release.
According to IMS Research analyst and report author Femi Omoni, “The original iPhone was the catalyst that created this huge market interest in touchscreen phones. The fact that it was not only popular with consumers, but also helped drive data revenues proved how important touchscreen handsets can be. Now all of the network operators and handset anufacturers want a piece of the pie.”
The impressive growth that IMS Research is predicting will not be driven solely by the smartphone segment either. According to the IMS Research report Touchscreens & Input Technologies for Mobile Handsets, touchscreens will increasingly penetrate the much larger feature phone segment. In fact, Nokia just announced that its initial foray into the touchscreen market will be targeted at the “volume market” because that segment of the population is the largest consumer of mobile phones.

2008 Cellular GPS Market Set to Overshadow PND Shipments - 08 September 2008

2009 GPS Market Up 25% Despite Poor Semiconductor Outlook, Says IMS Research - 12 January 2009

Bluetooth Technology Boosts Data Transfer Rates, Mobile Handsets Gain Functionality - 12 December 2008

Surprising New Markets Drive Six-fold Increase in GPS Shipments - 28 August 2008

Smartphones killing PDNs?

RIM beats Microsoft Mobile - Symbian looses 10 percent

Mobilewack

Isn’t this some good news? RIM surpasses Windows Mobile in market share for the second quarter of the year. RIM comes second after Symbian which dropped significantly from the same time last year. Amazingly Windows Mobile lost the second position although they have about the same market share they did last year.

BlackBerry is up to 17.4% from last year’s 8.9%. They have almost doubled their market share in a year. Apple went from 1% to almost 3% during the same period. The biggest looser seems to be Symbian which has lost about 10% from 65.6% to 57.1%.

What is a SMARTPHONE?

I have tried and tried to better understand the GPS chip count but the " industry pundits " used as sources are not much more that soggy cow-chips .

I have even gone to the horses’ mouths to try to sort out not the finite count but the magnitudes of growth. Too sensitive - fortunes and futures are at stake!

And my absolute biggest gripe is the speculation as related to so called smart-phones, the Mother-of-all-GPS uses, evolution into PDNs (or is it really PDNs/PDAs into smart phones?) for which there seems to be a rather dynamic definition that so crumbles the statistical edges that nothing or very little can be determined… with the result of FUD.

Personally I see the one-handed smart-phones versus enlightened PDAs and PDNs (also know as "I want-2-b-a-phone too!" devices) as key to really understanding what may or may not be really happening…

My personal bet is where ever you have a good digital camera the chances of having a GPS location will soon be the norm - so just count the great cameras? Too easy.. just point me in the direction of great cameras - Nokia, Nikon, Cannon, Kodak, and Apple or Google?

Smart Phones Must Have's:

• Provide voice communication via a carrier
• Provide Internet connectivity via carrier and WiFI/WAN (I don’t need no stupid carrier!)
• Can be programmed by third-parties
• Organize internally around a directory tree structures for programs and data
• Provide removable data storage/chips
• Include the Bluetooth halo
• Have a good camera – better than 3mp IMHO and VGA MPEG video
• Have good GPS – CEP less than 30m

Now the statistical chaff starts when “form/size” is included. There are two types based on size – candy-bar origami and ham-sandwiches both now exhibiting an evolving form identified as finger-fud:

One-handed – small, fits in your pocket including origami designs (which reveal a hidden keyboard) but can be and best operated with one hand and thumb – billions sold

One Hand vs Origami

Two-handed – needs two hands to operate either with touch/micro-keyboards or finger/stylus.

ham-sandwiches (size factor) like most Palm, RIM, and Microsoft OSed devices – keyboards not hidden but sometimes can be virtual – tens of millions to be sold soon

Ham Sandwiches

Both forms are evolving features I identify as finger-fud – best example is iPHONE and like derivatives (Ham-sandwich with crusts trimmed?).

So if you or your group can help normalize all of this noise we, at least this MidNight Mapper, will all appreciate your skills and clarity of purpose. Heck you might even be called over to DC to alert our government that things are happening in the GPS domain.

Lastly, there are two phone-GPS pieces really missing IMHO –

• really cool "integrated" usability (a review of third-party GPS utilities not just maps!), and
• accuracy of the GPS since LBS and its certain 2-come ad-$$ can be as bad as phantom clicks if the revenue models think 100m CEP versus 3m CEP is the smarter choice to deliver and charge 4 an ad?

geoMobile Services $13 billion by 2013

Mobile Location Based Services Revenue to Reach $13.3 Billion Worldwide by 2013

LONDON - April 3, 2008

Contact: Nicole Fabris Contact PR http://www.abiresearch.com/

After years of hype, mobile Location Based Services (LBS) are finally gaining traction among wireless subscribers. This growth is driven on the supply side by WCDMA and GSM handsets increasingly joining the many CDMA-based devices that incorporate GPS capabilities; and on the demand side by surging consumer interest in personal navigation functionality. According to a new report from ABI Research, LBS revenue is forecast to reach an annual global total of $13.3 billion by 2013, up from an estimated $515 million during 2007. Personal navigation, although expected to remain the most popular consumer application over the next several years, won’t be alone: friend-finder, local information searches, family tracker applications, and enterprise applications (including workforce tracking and fleet management), will all find niches under the LBS umbrella. Friend-finding is anticipated to be the next service launched for mass consumption. ABI Research industry analyst Jamie Moss says, “Personal navigation and enterprise services are projected to be the highest revenue-generating services of the five LBS categories profiled, and are forecast to be worth about $4.3 billion and $6.5 billion respectively, per annum, by 2013.” “The interesting thing about the LBS content-producing sector is that much of the information is already available,“ Moss continues. “It’s a win-win situation for content providers: they already have established markets for their map and POI data (automotive and telematics), and LBS is yet another that could potentially provide them with considerable additional licensing revenue.” However there are still important service-related developments needed to ensure LBS’s future success. The wider availability of all-inclusive data tariffs will spur service usage, which will in turn reduce users’ concerns about how much data value-added services like LBS might consume. Perhaps the most important development will be the cross-network interoperability of services. Once services provided by one carrier are capable of seamlessly incorporating users from other networks, then the usage of LBS will be driven virally by the desire to respond to and interact with friends and family on other networks. ABI Research’s “Mobile Location Based Services” examines the market for high-accuracy LBS, focusing on the applications side of the industry. It examines service deployments, providing projected levels of uptake and revenues for five key LBS types. It includes summary profiles of the market-leading LBS-enabling companies, and forms part of three subscription Research Services: Location Aware Services, Mobile Devices, and Consumer Mobility. ABI Research is a leading market research firm focused on the impact of emerging technologies on global consumer and business markets. Utilizing a unique blend of market intelligence, primary research, and expert assessment from its worldwide team of industry analysts, ABI Research assists hundreds of clients each year with their strategic growth initiatives. For information, visit www.abiresearch.com, or call +1.516.624.2500.

One Billion Mobile Phones in 2007!

Blockbuster year for mobile phones

More than 1 billion phones were sold globally for the first time in 2007, a 16 percent increase from 2006 sales

By Mikael Ricknäs, IDG News Service
February 27, 2008

With more than 1 billion phones sold globally for the first time, 2007 was a banner year for mobile phone sales. As sales continue to grow, the big questions this year are whether global market leader Nokia can expand in North America, and whether Motorola can stop its slide.

Worldwide sales of mobile phones ended up surpassing 1.15 billion units in 2007, a 16 percent increase from 2006 sales of 990.9 million, according to figures from Gartner. Emerging markets, especially China and India, are now the driver for growth, with many people in the countries now buying their first phone.

Nokia continues to dominate. It sold 435 million mobile phones last year, and gained a market share of more than 40 percent for the first time during the fourth quarter, according to Gartner. During 2007, Nokia's market share was 37.8 percent. It is followed by Motorola, Samsung, Sony Ericsson, and LG. Everyone except for Motorola, which lost its second place to Samsung during the fourth quarter, increased its market share.

For the full year, Motorola's market share was 14.3 percent, down from 21.1 percent. Samsung increased its market share from 11.8 percent to 13.4 percent.

Sony Ericsson and LG saw their share increase by less than 1 percent, to 8.8 percent and 6.8 percent, respectively.

Looking forward to this year, sales will continue to grow, according to Gartner. Nokia has the chance to extend its lead even further, with growth in North America the key. "In most markets, Nokia's market share is larger than 40 percent; in North America, it's close to 10 percent," said Carolina Milanesi, research director at Gartner. The Finnish phone giant has tried, and failed, to crack the North American market for many years. But changes in the market will help Nokia, according to Carolina Milanesi.

"Verizon has said it plans to open its network, which might be more on paper than in reality. But North American carriers are starting to realize they need to be more flexible than in the past. For Nokia, and everyone else, it means not having to build Verizon-specific phones, and faster time to market," she said.

In 2008, Nokia will also need to continue to improve its portfolio, offering not only more applications and functions, but also novel designs and improved user interfaces.

Nokia has recently received criticism for not releasing phones equipped with touch-based user interfaces.

"I don't think it matters that Nokia is a little late to the market, as long as it gets it right. Nokia will have to 'wow' users, otherwise it will be crucified," said Milanesi.

Nokia was also late to the market with 3G phones, but became the biggest vendor in the end. "Nokia built a platform, and was able to release a lot of phones, which made it No. 1," said Milanesi. She also thinks Sony Ericsson can grow its market share during 2008.

"Sony Ericsson has a very interesting lineup. With the addition of Windows Mobile, it has a chance to grow in North America," said Milanesi.

A big question for 2008 is the future of Motorola's mobile phone business. If it decides to sell, it's likely that the buyer will be a Chinese vendor, like ZTE.

"If it [ZTE] has the money," Milanesi said.