Android a Hopeless Open Source Effort?

 

IMS Research suggests Android Market will Fragment

The Android platform appears poised for considerable growth in 2009, but some hurdles for the platform remain. Google’s senior director of mobile platforms, Andy Rubin, announced on May 27th that its Android platform will appear on at least 18 handset models, designed by 8 or 9 OEMs, in 2009. While this widespread market adoption marks a significant milestone for Android, it could also pose the greatest threat to the platform’s future. Open source platforms, including Android, have gained considerable momentum in the mobile handset market because they are royalty-free and allow customization from OEMs and mobile network operators (MNOs). However, that ability to alter and customize the platform source code can result in the development of incompatible variants of the platform, or fragmentation. Platform fragmentation increases the cost of development and negates many of the benefits provided by an open source community.

The Android platform has the potential to carve out a substantial share of the smartphone market, as IMS Research projects the Android platform will ship on over 43 million handsets in 2014. However, to achieve and sustain that share of the market, the OHA and Google will need to address this issue of fragmentation. A fragmented Android platform would result in compatibility problems for Android applications and would ultimately push the cost of continued development of the platform to individual OEMs or MNOs, rather than the OHA as a whole. Such increased development costs and a fragmented application portfolio would make competing with other open source platforms an uphill battle for Android.

It’s Gonna Be A Summer Of SmartPhone ...

Techcrunch forgets Nokia....

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From Techcrunch by Erick Schonfeld on June 4, 2009  

Can you feel the tingling in the air? If you haven’t found it already,you will. This is going to be the summer of love. I am talking, of course, about smartphone love. The serenades have already begun for the June 6 launch of the Palm Pre. Next week, Apple will reveal it’s next iPhone (you know MG is going to get one). Blackberry might come out with its second Storm by summer’s end. And the lovefest will continue throughout the year with launch after launch of new Android phones as well. It will be practically nonstop. I hope you can handle it.

These aren’t just attractive new playthings. They represent something much deeper and more meaningful. They represent a major transition in both the mobile phone industry and in mobile computing. The iPhone paved the way, but now the Web phones are ready to take over the world. Their relative numbers compared to basic feature phones may still be small, but their mindshare and profits are large. Already, the iPhone and Blackberry Web phones are gobbling up a majority of the industry’s profits.

Why? It has nothing to do with making phone calls. The Web in your pocket means you always have something to read, you are always connected to your digital network, and you can always reach out and Tweet someone or poke them or send them an email. And if all that fails, you can still call. But the problem with actually speaking to someone is that you can only carry on one conversation at a time. With a Web phone, you can keep track of your entire conversation stream.

Does Nokia Make Smartphones...? Yes, they are the world's largest

I've got a gripe. Nokia just can get no respect!

It seems that the only smartphone out there is the iPhone or Pre at the moment by the pundants who Twitter-gab and blog-snarf. But here is heads-up.... more next post below..

HEY! The world's largest computer makers list starts with Nokia, followed by HP, Dell, Apple, Acer, Lenovo, RIM, and Toshiba. The count includes all PC sales, the PDA and smartphone over four quarters, starting from October 2007 to September 2008. As soon as smartphones have been included in the total number of computers sold in 2008, Nokia has received the title of the world's largest computer maker in the world. As it turns out, the company accounts for about 13.8% of market, yet only its smartphones have been included in this count, while the Nokia mobile phones and Nokia Internet Tablets have been left aside. Softpedia

In addition to the Palm Pre and the maybes of iPhone, Nokia's N97 is quietly being released not in one or three countries but 75! Whay is this noteable? Well the N97 is really quite a work of technology. It is not a shift in design nor revolutionary interface but is Nokia's steady dominate progression on what makes a smartphone smart. Indeed it too has a touch screen, it also has a QWERTY slide out keyboard, heaps of memory, a kick-butt five Mp camera, video, and more! And it happily multi-tasks. A very detailed review of Nokia's latest additon to its smartphone portfolio can be gotten at all about symbian.

The n97, an open-source Symbian-based smartphone, also features a music and video player, a 5-megapixel camera with Carl Zeiss optics, and a whopping 32GB of onboard memory that can be expanded with a 16GB microSD card. The quad-band (GSM 850/900/1800/1900) world phone is HSDPA-capable handset, but it currently supports only the 900/1900/2100MHz bands (AT&T's 3G network runs on 850/1900MHz, while T-Mobile runs on 1700/2100MHz). There is integrated Wi-Fi and Bluetooth, however. The Nokia N97 is expected to ship in Europe during the first half of 2009, with an estimated price of 550 euros ($695). Cnet Dec08

Who gets the $ from Smartphones

Techcrunch reprots...The Spoils Go To The Smartest. Apple And RIM Take Majority Of Cell Phone Industry Profits

by Erick Schonfeld on June 1, 2009

Deutsche Bank analyst Brian Modoff did some anlysis on Spartphones and shifting technical advantages. When you look at sales of the iPhone or Blackberry as a percentage of total cell phone sales, they are still a tiny smidgen of the one billion phones estimated to be sold this year. But when you look at what really matters—their share of revenues or operating profits—the picture looks a lot different.

In a note, Modoff writes: “Increasingly, the smartphone vendors are claiming more of the industry’s profit dollars even as the pool of profitability stabilizes or shrinks.” Thanks to the success of the highly-profitable iPhone, Apple’s share of industry operating profits went from 3 percent in 2007 to 20 percent in 2008 and will grow again to an estimated 31 percent in 2009. RIM, maker of the Blackberry, is doing even better, increasing its estimated share of industry profits from 8 percent (2007) to 19 percent (2008) to 35 percent (2009). So adding those two together, Apple and RIM are expected to account for an incredible 66 percent of industry profits this year.

Meanwhile, once-dominant Nokia is seeing its estimated share of industry profits drop from 64 percent (2007) to 57 percent (2008) to 32 percent (2009). The only other major manufacturer to grow its profit share is Samsung, from 14 prcent last year to an estimated 19 percent this year. (A note on methodology: These numbers take into account operating losses at companies such as Motorola and Palm, and the total adds up to 100 only when you subtract their losses, which are expressed as negative percentages).