Android a Hopeless Open Source Effort?

 

IMS Research suggests Android Market will Fragment

The Android platform appears poised for considerable growth in 2009, but some hurdles for the platform remain. Google’s senior director of mobile platforms, Andy Rubin, announced on May 27th that its Android platform will appear on at least 18 handset models, designed by 8 or 9 OEMs, in 2009. While this widespread market adoption marks a significant milestone for Android, it could also pose the greatest threat to the platform’s future. Open source platforms, including Android, have gained considerable momentum in the mobile handset market because they are royalty-free and allow customization from OEMs and mobile network operators (MNOs). However, that ability to alter and customize the platform source code can result in the development of incompatible variants of the platform, or fragmentation. Platform fragmentation increases the cost of development and negates many of the benefits provided by an open source community.

The Android platform has the potential to carve out a substantial share of the smartphone market, as IMS Research projects the Android platform will ship on over 43 million handsets in 2014. However, to achieve and sustain that share of the market, the OHA and Google will need to address this issue of fragmentation. A fragmented Android platform would result in compatibility problems for Android applications and would ultimately push the cost of continued development of the platform to individual OEMs or MNOs, rather than the OHA as a whole. Such increased development costs and a fragmented application portfolio would make competing with other open source platforms an uphill battle for Android.

It’s Gonna Be A Summer Of SmartPhone ...

Techcrunch forgets Nokia....

30 Comments

From Techcrunch by Erick Schonfeld on June 4, 2009  

Can you feel the tingling in the air? If you haven’t found it already,you will. This is going to be the summer of love. I am talking, of course, about smartphone love. The serenades have already begun for the June 6 launch of the Palm Pre. Next week, Apple will reveal it’s next iPhone (you know MG is going to get one). Blackberry might come out with its second Storm by summer’s end. And the lovefest will continue throughout the year with launch after launch of new Android phones as well. It will be practically nonstop. I hope you can handle it.

These aren’t just attractive new playthings. They represent something much deeper and more meaningful. They represent a major transition in both the mobile phone industry and in mobile computing. The iPhone paved the way, but now the Web phones are ready to take over the world. Their relative numbers compared to basic feature phones may still be small, but their mindshare and profits are large. Already, the iPhone and Blackberry Web phones are gobbling up a majority of the industry’s profits.

Why? It has nothing to do with making phone calls. The Web in your pocket means you always have something to read, you are always connected to your digital network, and you can always reach out and Tweet someone or poke them or send them an email. And if all that fails, you can still call. But the problem with actually speaking to someone is that you can only carry on one conversation at a time. With a Web phone, you can keep track of your entire conversation stream.

Does Nokia Make Smartphones...? Yes, they are the world's largest

I've got a gripe. Nokia just can get no respect!

It seems that the only smartphone out there is the iPhone or Pre at the moment by the pundants who Twitter-gab and blog-snarf. But here is heads-up.... more next post below..

HEY! The world's largest computer makers list starts with Nokia, followed by HP, Dell, Apple, Acer, Lenovo, RIM, and Toshiba. The count includes all PC sales, the PDA and smartphone over four quarters, starting from October 2007 to September 2008. As soon as smartphones have been included in the total number of computers sold in 2008, Nokia has received the title of the world's largest computer maker in the world. As it turns out, the company accounts for about 13.8% of market, yet only its smartphones have been included in this count, while the Nokia mobile phones and Nokia Internet Tablets have been left aside. Softpedia

In addition to the Palm Pre and the maybes of iPhone, Nokia's N97 is quietly being released not in one or three countries but 75! Whay is this noteable? Well the N97 is really quite a work of technology. It is not a shift in design nor revolutionary interface but is Nokia's steady dominate progression on what makes a smartphone smart. Indeed it too has a touch screen, it also has a QWERTY slide out keyboard, heaps of memory, a kick-butt five Mp camera, video, and more! And it happily multi-tasks. A very detailed review of Nokia's latest additon to its smartphone portfolio can be gotten at all about symbian.

The n97, an open-source Symbian-based smartphone, also features a music and video player, a 5-megapixel camera with Carl Zeiss optics, and a whopping 32GB of onboard memory that can be expanded with a 16GB microSD card. The quad-band (GSM 850/900/1800/1900) world phone is HSDPA-capable handset, but it currently supports only the 900/1900/2100MHz bands (AT&T's 3G network runs on 850/1900MHz, while T-Mobile runs on 1700/2100MHz). There is integrated Wi-Fi and Bluetooth, however. The Nokia N97 is expected to ship in Europe during the first half of 2009, with an estimated price of 550 euros ($695). Cnet Dec08

Who gets the $ from Smartphones

Techcrunch reprots...The Spoils Go To The Smartest. Apple And RIM Take Majority Of Cell Phone Industry Profits

by Erick Schonfeld on June 1, 2009

Deutsche Bank analyst Brian Modoff did some anlysis on Spartphones and shifting technical advantages. When you look at sales of the iPhone or Blackberry as a percentage of total cell phone sales, they are still a tiny smidgen of the one billion phones estimated to be sold this year. But when you look at what really matters—their share of revenues or operating profits—the picture looks a lot different.

In a note, Modoff writes: “Increasingly, the smartphone vendors are claiming more of the industry’s profit dollars even as the pool of profitability stabilizes or shrinks.” Thanks to the success of the highly-profitable iPhone, Apple’s share of industry operating profits went from 3 percent in 2007 to 20 percent in 2008 and will grow again to an estimated 31 percent in 2009. RIM, maker of the Blackberry, is doing even better, increasing its estimated share of industry profits from 8 percent (2007) to 19 percent (2008) to 35 percent (2009). So adding those two together, Apple and RIM are expected to account for an incredible 66 percent of industry profits this year.

Meanwhile, once-dominant Nokia is seeing its estimated share of industry profits drop from 64 percent (2007) to 57 percent (2008) to 32 percent (2009). The only other major manufacturer to grow its profit share is Samsung, from 14 prcent last year to an estimated 19 percent this year. (A note on methodology: These numbers take into account operating losses at companies such as Motorola and Palm, and the total adds up to 100 only when you subtract their losses, which are expressed as negative percentages).

Not-so-Smart phones getting Smarter

 

The "Smartphone" Is Dead: Long Live Smart Phones And Smart Gadgets
This is the first document in the "Smart Mobile Devices" series.
by Ian Fogg with Michelle de Lussanet, Laura Wiramihardja

Forrester  spoke with leading mobile firms, including executives from Apple, HTC, Microsoft, Nokia, Palm and Research In Motion (RIM). Those executives identified three categories that typically indicate a phone is smart, such as whether the phone has the ability to install new applications, the use of particular operating system software and whether a phone has features such as GPS, Wi-Fi, camera, MP3 player or Web browsing capabilities. Apple's and Google's arrival in the mobile market is causing knock-on effects throughout the market and is opening up opportunities. All mobile handsets are becoming smarter and Internet-capable. Yesterday's smart high-end phone is today's midrange phone and tomorrow's entry-level phone. The "smartphone" category is no longer useful as all phones become smart. Instead, we propose three new frameworks to segment the smart mobile device market: openness and extensibility; consumption and creation; utility and entertainment. All mobile strategies must adapt now: Consumer electronics makers must decide on their response to widely available smarter phones and the mobile Internet; handset makers must leverage software to play the mobile Internet game and differentiate long term; media, finance, retail, and other Internet companies' strategies must exploit mobile opportunities now or lose ground to faster rivals. But the mobile market will remain fragmented with no single platform — no Windows PC equivalent — anytime soon on mobile devices. Therefore, mobile strategists must analyze their target consumers carefully before embarking on large mobile investments. The report says nearly all mid-range phones now have core features that were in the past reserved for smartphones, essentially rendering the term “smartphone” meaningless. The report cites a JupiterResearch European Mobile Forecast from July 2008 that showed that by 2013, nearly 98 percent of all phones in Western Europe will come equipped with multi-megapixel cameras. According to the report, the mobile market will continue to fragment with new operating systems and software. While the report acknowledges the importance of hardware, it appears software will be the differentiator of the future.

Better than 1 in 8 in US Have Smartphones

In aggregate around one in eight in the US have a smart phone. When only new handsets are looked over three times as many porportionally selected a smart phone?
AT&T Touts More Smartphone Users

By Andrew Berg
WirelessWeek - May 15, 2009

AT&T today announced a new ad campaign that will highlight the carrier’s relatively high number of smartphone subscribers. In a press release on the company’s Web site, AT&T cited "independent market research" that shows twice as many smartphone users have chosen AT&T over any other U.S. carrier. AT&T said a new TV spot features a businessman e-mailing with his boss and sending files on a bus that’s morphed into a harried workplace.

The idea communicated is that twice as many smartphone users have chosen AT&T because with AT&T, they have confidence they can always stay connected. The new ads will begin running over the weekend. Until recently, AT&T had claimed to be the nation’s largest wireless carrier. However, Verizon Wireless recently acquired Alltel, and subsequently an additional 13.2 million customers. In its first-quarter earnings, Verizon reported 86.6 million total subscribers, while AT&T had 78.2 million.

comScore was the research firm responsible for showing that AT&T in March had 11.8 million smartphone customers, which was more than double the 5.1 million that the combined Verizon Wireless-Alltel unit had and 47 percent of U.S. smartphone customers overall, according to a Wall Street Journal report. “We’ve taken integrated devices mainstream and nearly a third of our postpaid customers use one,” said David Christopher, chief marketing officer, AT&T Mobility and Consumer Markets, in a press release.

AT&T said it expects total capital expenditures to be $17 billion to $18 billion in 2009, with more than three-quarters of that supporting mobility and data.

PDNs Struggles

GPS-Wireless 2009: Dreary Year for PND Manufacturers

May 13, 2009
By: Kevin Dennehy
GPS World

The market for portable navigation devices (PNDs) is so low that companies are re-thinking their entire business models. Companies such as TomTom, Garmin, Navigon, and others have seen sales drop to record lows. With $30 PNDs soon to be a reality, companies are trying to see if it makes sense to continue to offer product lines. While companies struggle to find answers to counter a worldwide economic meltdown, strong competitors like Google are swooping in to offer similar services at no cost to battered consumers.

Is Google the Evil Empire?

Because Google believes navigation should be free to its users, the web portal giant is perceived to be a major threat to companies offering paid products and services. “Google is threatening to everyone. They leverage the strength of their ad revenue,” said Michael Dobson, TeleMapics president.

Dobson also believes that local search is rarely a satisfying experience for the end user. “Nokia bought Navteq in part to make the mobile local search market a reality. If they can’t do that, they won’t make half the money they should,” he said.