Android, iOS to surpass BlackBerry in OS share by 2011
Both Android and iOS will have overtaken the BlackBerry for market share within the next year, Gartner predicted on Friday. It saw Google overtaking RIM's BlackBerry this year for the second-place spot, but by 2011 expected both Android and the iPhone to have outrun the BlackBerry in 2011. Android will have extended its lead over iOS by shipping almost 92 million phones next year, or 22.2 percent share, where Apple will have moved under 71 million (17.1 percent); RIM would ship just 62 million (down to 15 percent).
They also expected a slight bounce back for Windows Phone 7 to over 21 million phones or 5.2 percent share, but that this wouldn't translate to Nokia's preferred Symbian platform. It would keep losing influence and fall to 34.2 percent of smartphones. Gartner didn't expect Windows Phone 7's momentum to last, as it would fall to a new low of 3.9 percent by 2014.
Most of Google's success would come from a push into the low end; Samsung, but also LG, Motorola and Sony Ericsson, will have pushed deeper into budget Android phones even this year. The researchers didn't expect closed platforms like the iPhone and BlackBerry to get significant traction in the long term as the advantage of having multiple phone makers would push open platforms like Android and keep Symbian alive. Apple typically doesn't participate in the low end; RIM does with phones like the Curve 3G, but it has been slipping at the high end.