The battle for dominance in the smartphone market will shake out in the next five years and when it’s finished, Google (GOOG), not Apple (AAPL), will emerge the victor. That’s the outlook from Piper Jaffray which sees Google’s Android OS aggressively capturing market share in the years ahead.
“We estimate Google will control 14.9 percent of the smartphone market through Android in 2010, growing to 23.2 percent in 2012,” the research house says in a new report. “For Apple, we expect the iPhone 15.9 percent of the smartphone market in 2010, growing to 17.6 percent in 2012.”
And five years from now Android will likely control over half of the smartphone market. Meanwhile, Apple will hold between 20-30 percent.
And what of the other major players in the market — Nokia (NOK) and Research and Motion (RIMM)? Where do they figure in this future smartphone world order?
In the Android camp, according Piper Jaffray. How else could the OS claim a 50 percent market share so quickly?
“We believe long term both RIM and Nokia will be share losers in the smartphone space because they do not have a core software competency,” the firm explains. “Over time, we do not see the benefit of RIM and Nokia continuing to push proprietary software that can’t compete with the market and eventually expect one or both to capitulate and move to utilizing third party software. … Ultimately, we believe Android is likely to control over half of the smartphone market in the next five years. Apple’s essentially two phone focus (low price 3GS and higher price 4) will likely limit how much of the market Apple can control and we believe ultimately Apple’s smartphone market share tops out between 20-30%, which still offers significant room to grow.”